Why a Famous Counterfactual Historian Loves Making History Wi...
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Saved by 7 people (-1 private), first by anonymouse user on 2007-05-21
- Alexandrapickett on 2009-06-30 - Tags history , socialstudies
- Shaund on 2007-10-15 - Tags History , Gaming
- Khodok on 2007-08-30 - Tags history , games , simulation
- Ognjen on 2007-06-18 - Tags games , history , technology
- Mwesch on 2007-05-21 - Tags games , ksuws , worldsim
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you develop a Mandlebrotian appreciation of chaos dynamics -- how a single change can take a stable situation and sent it spiraling all to hell, or vice versa.
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The power of counterfactual thinking is that forces us to step outside of our comfort zones. When we think about historical events, we have 20/20 hindsight -- so we forget how confusing and uncertain they were at the time.
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When we play with sims, they knock us off our pedestals -- because crazy things usually happen we don't predict.
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The United States used to be champions at this sort of strategic thinking, Ferguson notes, until Iraq came along. Much of America's failures in Iraq have been due to the overly rosy predictions of administration heads. They didn't have the healthy respect for chaos that was the original animating genius of conservatism -- the thinkers like Edmund Burke, who distrusted aggressive tinkering with economies, states or cultures, because they shuddered to think of what genies might be unleashed.
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