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US National Assessment of Climate Change. Overview: Agriculture

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Cropland

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grasslands, and permanent grazing and pasturelands

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The value of agricultural commodities (food and fiber) exceeds $165 billion at the farm level and over $500 billion, 10% of GDP, after processing and marketing

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Agricultural productivity has improved at over 1% per year since 1950, resulting in a decline in both production costs and prices

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off-site consequences of soil erosion

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livestock wastes

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crop agriculture

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climate change, as defined by the scenarios examined in this Assessment, will not imperil the ability of the US to feed its population and to export foodstuffs

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Crops showing generally positive results include cotton, corn for grain and silage, soybeans, sorghum, barley, sugar beets, and citrus fruits. Pastures also show positive results.

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CO2 fertilization effect

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Greater concentrations of CO2 generally result in higher photosynthesis rates and may also reduce water losses from plants

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on-farm adaptation options

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changes in planting dates and changes in varieties

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dryland crops

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Two scenarios of future climate, the Canadian and Hadley

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Economically, consumers benefit from lower prices while producers' profits decline

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The estimated $4-5 billion reduction in producers' profits represents a 13-17% loss of income, while the savings of $3-6 billion to consumers represent less than a 1% reduction in the consumers' food and fiber expenditures. This large difference exists because much of the final cost of agricultural goods to consumers reflects processing, transportation, and retailing costs that the models used here assume are not affected by climate.

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Economic Impacts of climate change under the Canadian and Hadley climates.

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The smaller producer losses in the Hadley scenario, despite greater productivity gains and price changes, reflect the fact that the US farmers' advantage over foreign competitors grows and they are thus able to significantly increase export volume.

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