Black Swan Opacity
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Saved by 8 people (-1 private), first by anonymouse user on 2008-06-06
- Mavrik on 2009-09-24 - Tags no_tag
- Takuya514 on 2009-08-30 - Tags no_tag
- Olimay on 2009-06-29 - Tags no_tag
- Madisonguy on 2009-03-28 - Tags blog , taleb , nassimtaleb , probability , blackswan
- Dameron on 2009-02-24 - Tags health , Big Picture
Public Sticky notes
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
He's talking about health here! This is how life works; we are most often making decisions under ignorance. Resilience and adpatability are key in enabling robust function over the long haul, and making good choices as we go requires an awareness of *our* capacity to adapt, not increasinglu ridiculous attempts to know the future through statistics and probability.
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
One of the reasons this is true is that most of our thinking/processing happens in our physiology and preconscious nervous system. This is what makes health so elusive; it requires a shift in something that our society can't even recognize.
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
how different indeed! The primacy of *Observation* and philosphy as a love of wisdom-knowledge in *action*..... Korzybski would fit right in here. Reality comes first.
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It looks like we need randomness in both energy output and expenditure, with a negative correlation between the two. Just consider that we worked harder when hungry (thus compounding the deficit), and conserved energy during periods of feeding --exactly the opposite of the dictates of Platonic "equilibrium". The effect is to make our net energy "lumpier": large deficits followed by large excesses, followed of course by large deficits, etc.
I am discovering from the literature (under Art De Vany's guidance and based on his ideas on metabolic switches) that three meals a day is for morons --we need episodes of hunger punctuated brief by periods of replenishing. Hunger improves insulin sensitivity, brain function, etc. So it is a good idea to, counterintuitively, fast on days when we need the energy, rather than the opposite. Our Platonic "make sense" indicates that you need to "eat well" during a period of physical stress --the opposite holds true empirically: fasting chemo patients do much much better. Without actual testing, every cancer patient has been told to "eat well but not excessively".
The same applies to thirst.
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
Sounds like healthy ranges (link later) and some form of indirect (you could say taoist) feedback. Don't resist what is happening, folllow along, adding what is necessary to keep integrity where it is needed. The situation goes through it's extreme on the way back toward the middle of the range, and you've exercised your adaptability (increased your health) in the process.
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
Systema training, mixed with some Warrior Diet (Hofmeker), Weston Price and other points. Not at all saying he got it there, just that others with specific knowledge would corroborate this.
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
Therefore the *constant* need to stretch our capacities, and optimize for adaptability. Especially in modern ties, where the range of common experience is so narrow.
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
Here it is, said somewhat differently and indirectly. We need to develop and/or maintain this at all levels. I think the physical health piece would give him a key to behavior that he's missing. I'll want to get in touch at some point.
Theory came later, in a lame way, to satisfy the intellectual bureaucrats. But that’s not what you tend to read in standard histories of technology –I am convinced that, when writing history, we project our mental biases in a way to produce agency and increase the role of theory.
Mokyr’s other problem is that he focuses on applications that are linear in nature, those that have tractable mathematics, thin-tailed statistics: conventional engineering [Mediocristan] –assuming theories work there. His ideas of “knowledge base” do not apply to medicine or technology in the information age –where an epistemic base causes mental tunneling. Indeed medicine is an area in which theories and ideas have been bad for our health. Or take economics: we still don’t understand the subject. So it is easy for motivated researchers to focus on some applications in which propositional knowledge can lead to consequences and generalize to everything. This reminds me of a hotshot mathematician who gave a lecture about “the uses of mathematics in society’ (producing examples of traffic lights, cryptography, etc.). He did not consider the non-mathematicized non-mathematicizable applications, etc.
Highlighted by dameron
on 2009-02-24 by dameron
Something key here.... Back to the arrow of experience to knowledge from above, breaking it down a bit. The assumption of universal "logical" application, based on incomplete understanding of context. (Not enough observation.)
Highlighted by mavrik
61 Aesthetics & Religion [Platonicity & Empiricisms]: Two Interesting Thinkers –In More than One Respect
Religion has very little to do with “belief”; it is an indivisible package of aesthetics, ethics, social-emotional commitments, and transmission of κηρύγμα, a set of customs and rituals inherited from the elders. Indeed the complication of “belief” is mostly a Western Christianity type of constructed problems, and a modern one at that: ask an Eastern Orthodox monk “what he believes”, and he will be puzzled: he would tell you what he practices. [I discussed the “amin” in an earlier note]. Orthodoxy is principally liturgy, fasting, practices, and tradition; it is an ornate religion that focuses on aesthetics and requires a very strong commitment. “Belief” is meaningless; practice is real. What we now translate by “veneration”, προσκυνει is literally bowing down to the ground a very physical act [Note that I am not partaking of the current debate on religion out of disrespect for almost all the participants: aside from being journalistic in the worst bildungsphilistinistic sense, particularly when they talk about “probability”, most are not even wrong].
Highlighted by olimay


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