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Saved by 5 people (-1 private), first by anonymouse user on 2009-04-21


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  • As much diversity as possible is encouraged and the outcomes are then clustered and/or culled to create a range of four to five macro scenarios. Dimensions of the model emerge from this clustering and culling process.
  • From this point onwards the two routes converge on a set of macro

    • Highlighted by concetta

    Many of the control methods that are an inherent part of the military process are not there in a civilian environment. Over the years I have done a lot of work with military groups and found them much more rewarding than their equivalents in industry.

    Highlighted by cristode

    This type of comment is far from uncommon, and you would expect scenario planning to inform operational decision making. The fact that it doesn't does not make it useless but it does bound it

    Highlighted by cristode

    This matches work by Arie de Geus and others which shows the value of the process for participants in terms of reported behaviour changes and expanded thinking. However there is no real or substantive evidence of any impact on decision making, and limited academic studies which you would expect after thirty years.

    Highlighted by cristode

    Once a scenario or scenarios are committed then the danger is that unforeseen events are filtered out of organisational scanning, weak signals are missed. Individual groups or factions may start to use the scenarios to gain short term strategic advantage for their pet goals.

    Highlighted by cristode

    So used well Scenario provides a means to imagine different alternatives and enthral people in a new way of thinking about the world, either by way of an aspirational goal or a to be avoided at all costs negative future.

    Highlighted by cristode

    Used badly it is an attempt to reduce uncertainty in the future by mapping out a range of future possibilities. Now this may seem a contradictory or at best a paradoxical statement, surely we want to reduce uncertainty?Well yes we do, but only if it is genuinely possible to do so. If it is not then we are in fact increasing risk; better to embrace the uncertainty and learn to live in the present in knowledge of that uncertainty.

    Highlighted by cristode

    In the area of scenario planning one of the key needs is to radically increase the number of participants and the diversity of perspective. To do this we need technology.

    Highlighted by cristode

    Now traditional scenario planning on implementation tends to produce turning points and agreed signals to monitor for. As identified above the danger here is that we can only consider a limited number of possibilities. Now we have made a significant set of changes. We have distributed cognition, without having to delegate power to broad populations. We are working with fragmented fine granularity material which has not been synthesised or summarised (with inevitable loss. We have removed the mediating layers between decision makers and the raw data from their markets and staff which is key to effective decision making.

    Highlighted by cristode

    Summary: applying the three principles

    Distributed Cognition Fine Granularity Objects Disintermediation

    Highlighted by cristode