BLACKFIVE: COIN: On "The War as We Saw It"

What the anecdote suggests is suggested also by the recent killings in Najaf, aimed at factions loyal to al-Sistani.  These killings, in turn, have been part of a series of murders of Shi'ite religious and political leaders that broke out almost directly after the 2003 invasion, including the murders of Abdul Majid al-Khoei (allegedly by Sadr factions) and Mohammed Bakir al-Hakim.  It is not that there is a "Shi'ite faction," but that there are several of them in competition for control.  The infiltration by militias of some ISF units is matched by the infiltration by competing militias of ISF units, with differing loyalties and thoughts on the way forward. 

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The article suggests that the Shi'ites are trying to 'consolidate their hold over Iraq,' but what they really seem to be doing is competing for the right to consolidate the Shi'ite majority.

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The EFPs, the murders of Shi'ite holy men who are not aligned with Iran, these are not the mark of an ungovernable local situation.  They are the mark of intentional troublemaking -- proxy warfighting -- by Iran against the United States.  The planting of EFPs against American targets becomes, then, not an expression of native anti-American hatred -- a show of disgust for an occupier -- but part of a war fought by Iran to control the Iraqi state by winning control of the Shi'ites.

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Rather than engage the political question of what to do about Iran, I want to point to the military reality that their involvement creates.  What we are seeing here is not a national liberation movement by Shi'ites against Americans come to be viewed as occupiers.  What we are seeing is a divided Shi'ite Iraq, engaged in deadly infighting; with Iran backing some of the groups in a bid to control Iraq, and meanwhile also using them to wage proxy attacks against the United States.  A national liberation movement directed against us would be a cause for despair indeed; less so the situation as it is.  We can debate separately how we deal with Iran, but when we have dealt with them, a large part of this issue will resolve itself.

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