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"The Rapture for nerds"

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Statistician I. J. Good first wrote of an "intelligence explosion", suggesting that if machines could even slightly surpass human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unseen by their designers, and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences.

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Others, most prominently Ray Kurzweil, define the Singularity as a period of extremely rapid technological progress. Kurzweil argues such an event is implied by a long-term pattern of accelerating change that generalizes Moore's Law to technologies predating the integrated circuit and which he argues will continue to other technologies not yet invented.

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Critics of Kurzweil's interpretation consider it an example of static analysis, citing particular failures of the predictions of Moore's Law. The Singularity also draws criticism from anarcho-primitivism and environmentalism advocates

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Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.

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calling the creation of the first ultraintelligent machine the Singularity

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When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress,” Vinge writes, “that progress will be much more rapid.

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This feedback loop of self-improving intelligence, he predicts, will cause large amounts of technological progress within a short period of time.

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Most proposed methods for creating smarter-than-human or transhuman minds fall into one of two categories: intelligence amplification of human brains and artificial intelligence. The means speculated to produce intelligence augmentation are numerous, and include bio- and genetic engineering, nootropic drugs, AI assistants, direct brain-computer interfaces, and mind transfer. Despite the numerous speculated means for amplifying human intelligence, non-human artificial intelligence (specifically seed AI) is the most popular option for organizations trying to directly initiate the Singularity, a choice addressed by Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence (2002).

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When we create the first superintelligent entity, we might make a mistake and give it goals that lead it to annihilate humankind, assuming its enormous intellectual advantage gives it the power to do so. For example, we could mistakenly elevate a subgoal to the status of a supergoal. We tell it to solve a mathematical problem, and it complies by turning all the matter in the solar system into a giant calculating device, in the process killing the person who asked the question.

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Some AI researchers have made efforts to diminish what they view as potential dangers associated with the singularity. The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence is a nonprofit research institute for the study and advancement of Friendly Artificial Intelligence, a method proposed by SIAI research fellow Eliezer Yudkowsky for ensuring the stability and safety of AIs that experience Good's "intelligence explosion".

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"The Rapture for nerds"

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Many Singularitarians consider nanotechnology to be one of the greatest dangers facing humanity. For this reason, they often believe seed AI (an AI capable of making itself smarter) should precede nanotechnology.

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Some anarcho-primitivism and eco-anarchism advocates, such as John Zerzan and Derrick Jensen, see the Singularity as an orgy of machine control, and a loss of free existence outside of civilization. Bell (2002, 2003) expresses a cautionary environmentalist perspective on the Singularity.

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fine the Singularity as a period of extremely rapid technological progress.

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Some people say that computers can never show true intelligence whatever that may be. But it seems to me that if very complicated chemical molecules can operate in humans to make them intelligent then equally complicated electronic circuits can also make computers act in an intelligent way. And if they are intelligent they can presumably design computers that have even greater complexity and intelligence.

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"The Rapture for nerds"

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In futures studies, a technological singularity represents an "event horizon" in the predictability of human technological development past which present models of the future cease to give reliable or accurate answers

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Isaac Asimov’s Three Laws of Robotics are one of the earliest examples of proposed safety measures for AI. The laws are intended to prevent artificially intelligent robots from harming humans. In Asimov’s stories, any perceived problems with the laws tend to arise as a result of a misunderstanding on the part of some human operator; the robots themselves shut down in the case of a real conflict. On the other hand, in works such as the film I, Robot, which was based very loosely on Asimov's stories, a possibility is explored in which AI take complete control over humanity for the purpose of protecting humanity from itself. In 2004, the Singularity Institute launched an Internet campaign called 3 Laws Unsafe to raise awareness of AI safety issues and the inadequacy of Asimov’s laws in particular (Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence 2004).

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The technological singularity is a hypothesised point in the future variously characterized by the technological creation of self-improving intelligence, unprecedentedly rapid technological progress, or some combination of the two.[1]

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meaningfully

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if machines could even slightly surpass human intellect, they could improve their own designs in ways unforeseen by their designers, and thus recursively augment themselves into far greater intelligences.

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a period of extremely rapid technological progress

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Like the agricultural and industrial revolutions of the past, the technological singularity would increase economic growth between 60 and 250 times. An innovation that allowed for replacement of virtually all human labor could trigger this singularity.

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ultraintelligent machine

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ultraintelligent machine

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the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.

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computer speech recognition is approaching human capabilities

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But Berglas (2008) notes that

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It is difficult to directly compare silicon-based hardware with neurons. But Berglas (2008) notes that computer speech recognition is approaching human capabilities, and that this capability seems to require 0.01% of the volume of the brain. This analogy suggests that modern computer hardware is within a few orders of magnitude as powerful as the human brain.

One other factor potentially hastening the singularity is the ongoing expansion of the community working on it, resulting from the increase in scientific research within developing countries.

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In the current era, beginning with the Industrial Revolution, the world’s economic output doubles every fifteen years, sixty times faster than in the agricultural era. If the rise of superhuman intelligences causes a similar revolution, one would expect the economy to double at least quarterly and possibly on a weekly basis.[2]

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Machines capable of performing most mental and physical tasks as well as humans would cause a rise in wages for the jobs at which humans still outperform. However, a sudden proliferation of humanlike machines would likely cause a net drop in wages, as humans compete with robots for jobs.

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In 2009, academics and technical experts attended a conference to discuss the potential impact of the hypothetical possibility that robots could become self-sufficient and able to make their own decisions. They discussed the extent to which computers and robots might be able to acquire autonomy, and to what degree they could use such abilities to pose threats or hazards. Some machines have acquired various forms of semi-autonomy, including the ability to locate their own power sources and choose targets to attack with weapons. Also, some computer viruses can evade elimination and have achieved "cockroach intelligence". The conference attendees noted that self-awareness as depicted in science-fiction is probably unlikely, but that other potential hazards and pitfalls exist.[5]

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Many Singularitarians consider nanotechnology to be one of the greatest dangers facing humanity. For this reason, they often believe that seed AI (an AI capable of making itself smarter) should precede nanotechnology. Others, such as the Foresight Institute, advocate the creation of molecular nanotechnology, which they claim can be made safe for pre-singularity use or expedite the arrival of a beneficial singularity.

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Kurzweil believes that the singularity will occur before the end of the 21st century, setting the date at 2045

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Presumably, a technological singularity would lead to a rapid development of a Kardashev Type I civilisation where a Kardashev Type I civilization has achieved mastery of the resources of its home planet,

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Some critics assert that no computer or machine will ever achieve human intelligence while others do not rule out the possibility.[4] Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner argue that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining. Smart (2005) criticizes Huebner's analysis. Some evidence for this decline is that the rise in computer clock speeds is slowing, even while Moore's prediction of exponentially increasing circuit density continues to hold.

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A recent study of patents per thousand persons shows that human creativity does not show accelerating returns, but in fact, as suggested by Joseph Tainter in his seminal "The Collapse of Complex Societies[4]" a law of diminishing returns.[citation needed] The number of patents per thousand peaked in the period from 1850–1900 and has been declining since.[citation needed] The growth of complexity eventually becomes self-limiting, and leads to a wide spread "general systems collapse". Thomas Homer Dixon in "The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization" shows that the declining energy returns on investment has led to the collapse of civilizations. Jared Diamond in "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed" also shows that cultures self-limit when they exceed the sustainable carrying capacity of their environment,

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