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Garfield: 'Chaos Scenario' Has Arrived for Media, Marketing -...

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Future May Be Brighter, but It's Apocalypse Now

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Bernstein Research predicts a 20% to 30% drop in 2009 TV station ad revenue.

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According to Nielsen Media Research, in the last reporting period, CBS's prime-time audience was down 2.9%. ABC was down 9.7%, Fox was down 17.5% and NBC was down 14.3%

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Zucker keeps the lights on only because mass marketers, desperate for access to even the Incredible Shrinking Mass Audience, have continued to pay more and more for less and less.

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The average price of reaching 1,000 households with a 30-second spot in prime time, according to Media Dynamics, has jumped from $8.28 in 1986 to $22.65 in 2008 -- but effectively more like $32, because between 150 and 200 of those 1000 households use DVRs to skip past the ads.

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NBC: the cable channel.

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CBS, where fourth-quarter profit was down 54%, Les Moonves has publicly speculated about a similar move "five or 10 years away."

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"People are saying, 'All I need is broadband. I don't need video.'"

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"Today the average 14-year-old can create a global television network with applications that are built into her laptop. So from a very strict Econ 101 basis, you have the ability to create virtually unlimited supply against what has been historically relatively stable demand."

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